Bulgaria U21 vs Portugal U21

25 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

Bulgaria U21

Portugal U21

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 6.2% DRAW 12.1% AWAY 81.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 6.6% 14.30 DRAW 13.1% 7.23 AWAY 80.3% 1.18

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Portugal U21

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bulgaria U21 Portugal U21

Shots 6.5 · On target 2.3 Shots 17.8 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output favours Portugal U21, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bulgaria U21 Portugal U21

Shots allowed 1.0 · On target allowed 0.5 Shots allowed 1.8 · On target allowed 0.5

Bulgaria U21 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bulgaria U21 Portugal U21

The combined recent performance profile favours Portugal U21.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Bulgaria U21 ↑ +2.70 (+23.3%)

Portugal U21 ↓ -0.08 (-6.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.