Belgium U21 vs Wales U21

29 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

Belgium U21

Wales U21

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 83.3% DRAW 11.0% AWAY 5.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 81.2% 1.18 DRAW 12.4% 7.70 AWAY 6.4% 15.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Belgium U21 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Belgium U21 Wales U21

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.3 Shots 6.5 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Belgium U21 Wales U21

Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 4.0

Belgium U21 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Belgium U21 Wales U21

The combined recent performance profile favours Belgium U21.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Belgium U21 ↓ -0.04 (-3.4%)

Wales U21 ↑ +7.50 (+100.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.