Poland U21 vs Sweden U21

30 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Poland U21

Sweden U21

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.1% DRAW 20.3% AWAY 17.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.2% 1.63 DRAW 21.7% 4.45 AWAY 19.1% 5.05

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Poland U21 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 62.1% win probability, compared with 59.2% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Poland U21

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Poland U21 Sweden U21

Shots 10.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 4.5 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Poland U21, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Poland U21 Sweden U21

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Poland U21 Sweden U21

The combined recent performance profile favours Poland U21.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Poland U21 ↓ -0.09 (-5.2%)

Sweden U21 ↑ +0.74 (+17.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.