Portugal U21 vs Gibraltar U21

30 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Portugal U21

Gibraltar U21

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 98.2% DRAW 0.8% AWAY 0.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 97.1% 1.00 DRAW 1.5% 65.00 AWAY 1.5% 67.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Portugal U21 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Portugal U21 Gibraltar U21

Shots 17.8 · On target 6.5 Shots 1.8 · On target 0.5

Recent attacking output favours Portugal U21, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Portugal U21 Gibraltar U21

Shots allowed 1.8 · On target allowed 0.5 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.5

Portugal U21 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Portugal U21 Gibraltar U21

The combined recent performance profile favours Portugal U21.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Portugal U21 = (0.0%)

Gibraltar U21 ↓ -14.00 (-17.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.