Armenia U21 vs Italy U21

01 Oct 2026 · 18:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Armenia U21

Italy U21

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 3.1% DRAW 5.7% AWAY 91.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 3.4% 29.00 DRAW 6.7% 14.52 AWAY 90.0% 1.08

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Italy U21 has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Armenia U21 Italy U21

Shots 6.5 · On target 1.8 Shots 10.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Italy U21, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Armenia U21 Italy U21

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 2.8 · On target allowed 0.3

Italy U21 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Armenia U21 Italy U21

The combined recent performance profile favours Italy U21.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Armenia U21 ↓ -5.00 (-14.7%)

Italy U21 ↑ +0.03 (+2.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.