Ukraine U21 vs Croatia U21

02 Oct 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Ukraine U21

Croatia U21

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 23.5% DRAW 23.7% AWAY 52.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 24.8% 3.90 DRAW 24.5% 3.95 AWAY 50.7% 1.91

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Croatia U21 has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ukraine U21 Croatia U21

Shots 9.0 · On target 3.5 Shots 13.8 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Croatia U21, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ukraine U21 Croatia U21

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.8

Croatia U21 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ukraine U21 Croatia U21

The combined recent performance profile favours Croatia U21.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Ukraine U21 ↑ +0.75 (+23.8%)

Croatia U21 ↓ -0.26 (-12.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.