Vancouver Whitecaps vs DC United

27 Sep 2026 · 04:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Vancouver Whitecaps

DC United

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 80.9% DRAW 12.1% AWAY 7.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 78.3% 1.27 DRAW 13.8% 7.21 AWAY 8.0% 12.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Vancouver Whitecaps relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 80.9% win probability, compared with 78.3% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Vancouver Whitecaps has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Vancouver Whitecaps DC United

Shots 15.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 13.3 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Vancouver Whitecaps DC United

Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 3.8

Vancouver Whitecaps has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Vancouver Whitecaps DC United

The combined recent performance profile favours Vancouver Whitecaps.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Vancouver Whitecaps = (0.0%)

DC United ↑ +1.00 (+8.7%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.