Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United

27 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Seattle Sounders

Minnesota United

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.3% DRAW 24.6% AWAY 26.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.1% 2.11 DRAW 25.5% 3.81 AWAY 28.4% 3.42

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Seattle Sounders relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 49.3% win probability, compared with 46.1% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Seattle Sounders

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Seattle Sounders Minnesota United

Shots 15.0 · On target 6.0 Shots 12.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Seattle Sounders, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Seattle Sounders Minnesota United

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 6.0

Seattle Sounders has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Seattle Sounders Minnesota United

The combined recent performance profile favours Seattle Sounders.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Seattle Sounders ↓ -0.11 (-5.1%)

Minnesota United ↑ +0.27 (+8.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.