Rosenborg (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)

26 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +7.1 pp

Rosenborg (W)

Fortuna Aalesund (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.9% DRAW 22.8% AWAY 24.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.8% 2.08 DRAW 24.4% 3.90 AWAY 29.8% 3.19

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Rosenborg (W) substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.9% win probability, compared with 45.8% implied by the market. The 7.1 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Rosenborg (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Rosenborg (W) Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Shots 21.3 · On target 11.8 Shots 11.8 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Rosenborg (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Rosenborg (W) Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Rosenborg (W) Fortuna Aalesund (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Rosenborg (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Rosenborg (W) ↑ +0.35 (+20.4%)

Fortuna Aalesund (W) ↓ -0.56 (-14.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.