Argentino Merlo vs Villa San Carlos

26 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Argentino Merlo

Villa San Carlos

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.3% DRAW 35.6% AWAY 30.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.7% 2.77 DRAW 34.6% 2.70 AWAY 31.7% 2.95

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Villa San Carlos

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Argentino Merlo Villa San Carlos

Shots 7.0 · On target 2.0 Shots 9.0 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Argentino Merlo Villa San Carlos

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Argentino Merlo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Argentino Merlo Villa San Carlos

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Argentino Merlo ↑ +0.52 (+23.1%)

Villa San Carlos ↑ +0.07 (+2.4%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.