Club Leandro N. Alem vs Club Mercedes

20 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Club Leandro N. Alem

Club Mercedes

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.6% DRAW 32.9% AWAY 33.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.2% 2.80 DRAW 32.3% 2.88 AWAY 34.5% 2.69

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Club Mercedes

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Club Leandro N. Alem Club Mercedes

Shots 5.8 · On target 3.0 Shots 8.0 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Club Mercedes, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Club Leandro N. Alem Club Mercedes

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 5.0

Club Leandro N. Alem has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Club Leandro N. Alem Club Mercedes

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Club Leandro N. Alem ↓ -0.58 (-17.0%)

Club Mercedes ↑ +0.54 (+25.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.