Club Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo

26 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Club Mercedes

Puerto Nuevo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.4% DRAW 32.7% AWAY 29.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.0% 2.30 DRAW 32.0% 2.80 AWAY 28.9% 3.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Club Mercedes

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Club Mercedes Puerto Nuevo

Shots 7.0 · On target 3.5 Shots 6.8 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Club Mercedes Puerto Nuevo

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 4.3

Puerto Nuevo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Club Mercedes Puerto Nuevo

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Club Mercedes ↑ +0.06 (+2.6%)

Puerto Nuevo ↑ +0.48 (+18.1%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.