Leones de Rosario vs Lujan

28 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.8 pp

Leones de Rosario

Lujan

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.3% DRAW 33.5% AWAY 39.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.6% 3.03 DRAW 33.1% 2.80 AWAY 36.3% 2.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Lujan relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 39.1% win probability, compared with 36.3% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Lujan has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Leones de Rosario Lujan

Shots 8.8 · On target 2.5 Shots 14.0 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Lujan, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Leones de Rosario Lujan

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.0

Lujan has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Leones de Rosario Lujan

The combined recent performance profile favours Lujan.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Leones de Rosario ↑ +0.38 (+14.2%)

Lujan = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.