Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights FC

01 Oct 2026 · 04:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Sacramento Republic

Las Vegas Lights FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 61.7% DRAW 22.0% AWAY 16.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 61.3% 1.58 DRAW 22.5% 4.31 AWAY 16.2% 6.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Sacramento Republic

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sacramento Republic Las Vegas Lights FC

Shots 13.0 · On target 4.8 Shots 13.5 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sacramento Republic Las Vegas Lights FC

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sacramento Republic Las Vegas Lights FC

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Sacramento Republic ↑ +0.05 (+3.2%)

Las Vegas Lights FC ↑ +0.41 (+7.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.