Miami FC vs Sporting JAX

01 Oct 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.2 pp

Miami FC

Sporting JAX

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 69.0% DRAW 17.3% AWAY 13.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 63.8% 1.58 DRAW 19.6% 5.15 AWAY 16.7% 6.04

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Miami FC clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 69.0% win probability, compared with 63.8% implied by the market. The 5.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Sporting JAX

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Miami FC Sporting JAX

Shots 8.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 10.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Miami FC Sporting JAX

Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 1.5 Shots allowed 17.5 · On target allowed 8.0

Miami FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Miami FC Sporting JAX

The combined recent performance profile favours Miami FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Miami FC ↑ +0.05 (+2.9%)

Sporting JAX ↓ -0.12 (-2.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.