Tulsa vs New Mexico United

01 Oct 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Tulsa

New Mexico United

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.6% DRAW 24.4% AWAY 25.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.9% 2.04 DRAW 25.3% 3.87 AWAY 26.8% 3.65

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Tulsa relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 50.6% win probability, compared with 47.9% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: New Mexico United

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tulsa New Mexico United

Shots 8.3 · On target 2.8 Shots 10.5 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours New Mexico United, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tulsa New Mexico United

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 7.5

Tulsa has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tulsa New Mexico United

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Tulsa ↑ +0.10 (+5.0%)

New Mexico United ↑ +0.18 (+5.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.