Portland Thorns (W) vs Houston Dash (W)

27 Sep 2026 · 02:45

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +6.8 pp

Portland Thorns (W)

Houston Dash (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 69.4% DRAW 17.9% AWAY 12.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 62.6% 1.56 DRAW 20.6% 4.75 AWAY 16.8% 5.81

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Portland Thorns (W) substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 69.4% win probability, compared with 62.6% implied by the market. The 6.8 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Portland Thorns (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Portland Thorns (W) Houston Dash (W)

Shots 14.5 · On target 7.5 Shots 7.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Portland Thorns (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Portland Thorns (W) Houston Dash (W)

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 18.5 · On target allowed 8.8

Portland Thorns (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Portland Thorns (W) Houston Dash (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Portland Thorns (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Portland Thorns (W) ↑ +0.03 (+2.0%)

Houston Dash (W) ↑ +0.59 (+11.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.