Reign FC (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W)

03 Oct 2026 · 04:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

Reign FC (W)

North Carolina Courage (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.6% DRAW 23.9% AWAY 37.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.3% 2.43 DRAW 24.6% 3.88 AWAY 36.0% 2.65

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: North Carolina Courage (W)

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Reign FC (W) North Carolina Courage (W)

Shots 10.8 · On target 5.5 Shots 11.0 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Reign FC (W) North Carolina Courage (W)

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 3.5

North Carolina Courage (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Reign FC (W) North Carolina Courage (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Reign FC (W) ↓ -0.30 (-11.0%)

North Carolina Courage (W) ↑ +0.22 (+9.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.