Honefoss vs Tromsdalen

27 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Honefoss

Tromsdalen

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.0% DRAW 19.4% AWAY 20.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.3% 1.68 DRAW 21.0% 4.51 AWAY 22.7% 4.19

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Honefoss relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 60.0% win probability, compared with 56.3% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Honefoss

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Honefoss Tromsdalen

Shots 12.8 · On target 7.3 Shots 3.8 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Honefoss, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Honefoss Tromsdalen

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.5

Tromsdalen has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Honefoss Tromsdalen

The combined recent performance profile favours Honefoss.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Honefoss ↑ +0.06 (+4.0%)

Tromsdalen ↑ +0.19 (+4.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.