Toronto FC II vs New England Revolution II

20 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

Toronto FC II

New England Revolution II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.2% DRAW 22.2% AWAY 44.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 29.9% 3.15 DRAW 22.8% 4.12 AWAY 47.3% 1.99

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Toronto FC II relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 33.2% win probability, compared with 29.9% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Toronto FC II

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Toronto FC II New England Revolution II

Shots 11.5 · On target 6.5 Shots 8.5 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Toronto FC II, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Toronto FC II New England Revolution II

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Toronto FC II New England Revolution II

The combined recent performance profile favours Toronto FC II.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Toronto FC II ↓ -0.40 (-11.3%)

New England Revolution II ↑ +0.04 (+2.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.