Orlando City II vs Atlanta United II

20 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.6 pp

Orlando City II

Atlanta United II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.9% DRAW 24.1% AWAY 43.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.7% 2.80 DRAW 24.9% 3.90 AWAY 40.4% 2.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Atlanta United II relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 43.0% win probability, compared with 40.4% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Atlanta United II has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Orlando City II Atlanta United II

Shots 9.3 · On target 4.8 Shots 13.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Orlando City II Atlanta United II

Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 5.5

Atlanta United II has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Orlando City II Atlanta United II

The combined recent performance profile favours Atlanta United II.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Orlando City II ↓ -0.44 (-13.6%)

Atlanta United II ↑ +0.45 (+23.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.