St Louis City II vs Austin FC II

20 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

St Louis City II

Austin FC II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.1% DRAW 21.8% AWAY 19.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.8% 1.65 DRAW 22.2% 4.45 AWAY 18.0% 5.48

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Austin FC II

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

St Louis City II Austin FC II

Shots 8.0 · On target 2.3 Shots 10.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Austin FC II, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

St Louis City II Austin FC II

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 2.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

St Louis City II Austin FC II

The combined recent performance profile favours Austin FC II.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

St Louis City II ↓ -0.30 (-14.0%)

Austin FC II ↑ +2.02 (+62.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.