Tacoma Defiance vs Portland Timbers II

20 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.8 pp

Tacoma Defiance

Portland Timbers II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.5% DRAW 25.3% AWAY 37.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.8% 2.38 DRAW 25.8% 3.67 AWAY 34.4% 2.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Portland Timbers II relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 37.2% win probability, compared with 34.4% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Portland Timbers II has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tacoma Defiance Portland Timbers II

Shots 10.0 · On target 4.8 Shots 12.5 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tacoma Defiance Portland Timbers II

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 2.5

Portland Timbers II has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tacoma Defiance Portland Timbers II

The combined recent performance profile favours Portland Timbers II.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Tacoma Defiance ↑ +0.08 (+3.5%)

Portland Timbers II ↑ +0.03 (+1.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.