Real Monarchs SLC vs Ventura County FC

20 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.2 pp

Real Monarchs SLC

Ventura County FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.9% DRAW 23.3% AWAY 44.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.1% 2.75 DRAW 24.2% 3.87 AWAY 41.7% 2.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Ventura County FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 44.9% win probability, compared with 41.7% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Ventura County FC

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Real Monarchs SLC Ventura County FC

Shots 6.5 · On target 2.8 Shots 12.0 · On target 7.3

Recent attacking output favours Ventura County FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Real Monarchs SLC Ventura County FC

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Real Monarchs SLC Ventura County FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Ventura County FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Real Monarchs SLC ↓ -0.31 (-10.1%)

Ventura County FC ↑ +0.20 (+9.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.