Corinthians vs Fluminense

20 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.1 pp

Corinthians

Fluminense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.8% DRAW 30.4% AWAY 23.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.8% 2.12 DRAW 30.1% 3.22 AWAY 24.1% 4.02

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Corinthians

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Corinthians Fluminense

Shots 9.0 · On target 3.0 Shots 6.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Corinthians Fluminense

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Corinthians Fluminense

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Corinthians ↓ -0.02 (-0.9%)

Fluminense ↑ +0.17 (+4.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.