Vitoria vs Cruzeiro

20 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.3 pp

Vitoria

Cruzeiro

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.6% DRAW 27.7% AWAY 36.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.3% 3.10 DRAW 27.7% 3.51 AWAY 41.0% 2.37

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Vitoria clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 35.6% win probability, compared with 31.3% implied by the market. The 4.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Cruzeiro

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Vitoria Cruzeiro

Shots 12.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 12.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Vitoria Cruzeiro

Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 24.3 · On target allowed 8.3

Vitoria has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Vitoria Cruzeiro

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Vitoria ↑ +0.17 (+5.8%)

Cruzeiro ↓ -0.17 (-6.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.