Kristianstad FC vs Ariana FC Malmo

02 Oct 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

Kristianstad FC

Ariana FC Malmo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.2% DRAW 23.5% AWAY 45.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.6% 2.95 DRAW 24.4% 3.95 AWAY 43.1% 2.23

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Ariana FC Malmo has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Kristianstad FC Ariana FC Malmo

Shots 7.3 · On target 2.3 Shots 12.3 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Ariana FC Malmo, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Kristianstad FC Ariana FC Malmo

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Kristianstad FC Ariana FC Malmo

The combined recent performance profile favours Ariana FC Malmo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Kristianstad FC ↓ -0.25 (-7.8%)

Ariana FC Malmo ↑ +0.27 (+13.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.