Cuiaba vs Nautico

22 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.1 pp

Cuiaba

Nautico

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.3% DRAW 29.8% AWAY 28.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.9% 2.15 DRAW 29.3% 3.30 AWAY 25.8% 3.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Nautico relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 28.8% win probability, compared with 25.8% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Nautico has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cuiaba Nautico

Shots 11.8 · On target 2.5 Shots 16.8 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Nautico, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cuiaba Nautico

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.3

Nautico has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cuiaba Nautico

The combined recent performance profile favours Nautico.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Cuiaba ↑ +0.10 (+4.9%)

Nautico ↓ -0.11 (-2.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.