Londrina vs Fortaleza

20 Sep 2026 · 23:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Londrina

Fortaleza

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.4% DRAW 32.2% AWAY 33.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.0% 3.01 DRAW 31.6% 3.05 AWAY 36.4% 2.65

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Londrina

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Londrina Fortaleza

Shots 19.3 · On target 7.8 Shots 15.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Londrina, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Londrina Fortaleza

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Londrina Fortaleza

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Londrina ↓ -0.18 (-5.6%)

Fortaleza ↑ +0.19 (+7.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.