Norway vs Portugal

27 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Norway

Portugal

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.5% DRAW 23.9% AWAY 33.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.3% 2.30 DRAW 24.6% 3.95 AWAY 33.1% 2.94

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Norway Portugal

Shots 11.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 15.3 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Norway Portugal

Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Norway Portugal

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Norway ↓ -0.45 (-16.4%)

Portugal ↑ +0.35 (+13.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.