Spain vs Croatia

29 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

Spain

Croatia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 82.1% DRAW 10.8% AWAY 7.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 80.2% 1.22 DRAW 12.2% 8.00 AWAY 7.5% 13.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Spain

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Spain Croatia

Shots 15.5 · On target 6.8 Shots 10.8 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Spain, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Spain Croatia

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 2.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Spain Croatia

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Spain ↓ -0.14 (-10.3%)

Croatia ↑ +3.14 (+31.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.