England vs Spain

26 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.7 pp

England

Spain

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 21.2% DRAW 26.6% AWAY 52.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 24.9% 3.90 DRAW 27.6% 3.52 AWAY 47.6% 2.04

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Spain clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.3% win probability, compared with 47.6% implied by the market. The 4.7 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Spain has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

England Spain

Shots 11.0 · On target 6.5 Shots 15.5 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output favours Spain, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

England Spain

Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 1.8

Spain has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

England Spain

The combined recent performance profile favours Spain.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

England ↑ +1.01 (+34.9%)

Spain ↓ -0.48 (-19.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.