Germany vs Greece

27 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Germany

Greece

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.8% DRAW 19.6% AWAY 13.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 66.9% 1.47 DRAW 20.0% 4.90 AWAY 13.1% 7.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Greece

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Germany Greece

Shots 14.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 15.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Germany Greece

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Germany Greece

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Germany ↑ +0.09 (+6.4%)

Greece ↓ -0.85 (-10.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.