Serbia vs Netherlands

27 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Serbia

Netherlands

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 13.4% DRAW 18.3% AWAY 68.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 13.8% 7.00 DRAW 19.2% 5.05 AWAY 67.0% 1.45

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Netherlands has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Serbia Netherlands

Shots 10.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 14.5 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output favours Netherlands, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Serbia Netherlands

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.8

Netherlands has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Serbia Netherlands

The combined recent performance profile favours Netherlands.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Serbia ↑ +1.49 (+27.0%)

Netherlands ↓ -0.21 (-12.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.