France vs Italy

02 Oct 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

France

Italy

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 67.0% DRAW 18.9% AWAY 14.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 66.9% 1.46 DRAW 19.5% 5.00 AWAY 13.6% 7.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

France Italy

Shots 14.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 15.0 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

France Italy

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

France Italy

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

France ↑ +0.08 (+5.8%)

Italy ↑ +0.29 (+4.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.