Belgium vs France

28 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Belgium

France

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.5% DRAW 23.7% AWAY 49.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 25.5% 3.79 DRAW 24.1% 4.01 AWAY 50.4% 1.92

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: France

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Belgium France

Shots 18.5 · On target 6.0 Shots 16.5 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Belgium France

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Belgium France

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Belgium ↓ -0.02 (-0.4%)

France ↓ -0.06 (-3.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.