Slovenia vs North Macedonia

29 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

Slovenia

North Macedonia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.6% DRAW 25.4% AWAY 12.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.6% 1.64 DRAW 26.4% 3.70 AWAY 14.0% 6.99

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Slovenia relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 62.6% win probability, compared with 59.6% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Slovenia has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Slovenia North Macedonia

Shots 10.0 · On target 3.8 Shots 3.0 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Slovenia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Slovenia North Macedonia

Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 6.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Slovenia North Macedonia

The combined recent performance profile favours Slovenia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Slovenia ↓ -0.10 (-5.7%)

North Macedonia ↑ +1.64 (+30.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.