Ukraine vs Northern Ireland

02 Oct 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

Ukraine

Northern Ireland

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.9% DRAW 30.3% AWAY 20.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.3% 2.05 DRAW 30.3% 3.20 AWAY 22.5% 4.31

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Ukraine has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ukraine Northern Ireland

Shots 10.5 · On target 3.8 Shots 8.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ukraine Northern Ireland

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 4.0

Ukraine has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ukraine Northern Ireland

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Ukraine ↑ +0.03 (+1.5%)

Northern Ireland ↑ +0.80 (+22.6%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.