Northern Ireland vs Hungary

28 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.1 pp

Northern Ireland

Hungary

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.2% DRAW 31.4% AWAY 39.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.4% 2.80 DRAW 31.3% 3.08 AWAY 34.3% 2.81

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Hungary clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 39.4% win probability, compared with 34.3% implied by the market. The 5.1 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Hungary has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Northern Ireland Hungary

Shots 7.8 · On target 2.8 Shots 13.0 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Hungary, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Northern Ireland Hungary

Shots allowed 18.3 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 1.5

Hungary has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Northern Ireland Hungary

The combined recent performance profile favours Hungary.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Northern Ireland ↓ -0.54 (-16.2%)

Hungary ↑ +0.01 (+0.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.