Georgia vs Ukraine

28 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Georgia

Ukraine

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.4% DRAW 29.5% AWAY 33.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.3% 2.75 DRAW 29.4% 3.30 AWAY 35.3% 2.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Georgia has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Georgia Ukraine

Shots 9.0 · On target 3.5 Shots 7.3 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Georgia Ukraine

Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 1.0 Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.0

Georgia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Georgia Ukraine

The combined recent performance profile favours Georgia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Georgia = (0.0%)

Ukraine ↓ -0.11 (-3.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.