Georgia vs Northern Ireland

25 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.7 pp

Georgia

Northern Ireland

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 57.3% DRAW 26.7% AWAY 16.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.7% 1.88 DRAW 28.2% 3.45 AWAY 20.2% 4.81

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Georgia clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 57.3% win probability, compared with 51.7% implied by the market. The 5.7 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Georgia has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Georgia Northern Ireland

Shots 9.0 · On target 3.5 Shots 7.8 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Georgia Northern Ireland

Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 1.0 Shots allowed 18.3 · On target allowed 5.3

Georgia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Georgia Northern Ireland

The combined recent performance profile favours Georgia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Georgia ↓ -0.06 (-3.1%)

Northern Ireland ↑ +0.65 (+15.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.