Poland vs Romania

02 Oct 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Poland

Romania

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.7% DRAW 33.4% AWAY 21.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.8% 3.38 DRAW 33.2% 4.25 AWAY 25.0% 5.64

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Poland relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 44.7% win probability, compared with 41.8% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Poland has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Poland Romania

Shots 14.3 · On target 5.3 Shots 12.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Poland, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Poland Romania

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 5.8

Poland has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Poland Romania

The combined recent performance profile favours Poland.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Poland ↑ +1.94 (+134.4%)

Romania ↓ -0.66 (-10.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.