Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Sweden

02 Oct 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Sweden

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.1% DRAW 26.3% AWAY 35.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.5% 2.80 DRAW 26.6% 3.63 AWAY 38.8% 2.49

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Bosnia-Herzegovina relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 38.1% win probability, compared with 34.5% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Bosnia-Herzegovina

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bosnia-Herzegovina Sweden

Shots 12.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 10.3 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bosnia-Herzegovina Sweden

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 5.8

Bosnia-Herzegovina has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bosnia-Herzegovina Sweden

The combined recent performance profile favours Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Bosnia-Herzegovina ↓ -0.67 (-19.2%)

Sweden ↑ +0.61 (+32.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.