Sweden vs Poland

28 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

Sweden

Poland

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.5% DRAW 25.7% AWAY 30.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.5% 2.14 DRAW 25.9% 3.75 AWAY 28.6% 3.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Poland has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sweden Poland

Shots 8.5 · On target 4.0 Shots 10.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sweden Poland

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 3.5

Poland has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sweden Poland

The combined recent performance profile favours Poland.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Sweden ↑ +0.19 (+9.7%)

Poland ↓ -0.56 (-14.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.