San Marino vs Albania

29 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

San Marino

Albania

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 2.2% DRAW 5.6% AWAY 92.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 2.1% 46.00 DRAW 6.0% 16.00 AWAY 91.9% 1.05

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Albania

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

San Marino Albania

Shots 8.5 · On target 3.0 Shots 13.8 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

San Marino Albania

Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.0

Albania has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

San Marino Albania

The combined recent performance profile favours Albania.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

San Marino ↑ +29.00 (+170.6%)

Albania ↑ +0.05 (+4.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.