Finland vs Belarus

29 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Finland

Belarus

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.6% DRAW 25.2% AWAY 15.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.2% 1.59 DRAW 25.0% 3.82 AWAY 14.7% 6.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Belarus

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Finland Belarus

Shots 13.5 · On target 5.3 Shots 10.0 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Finland Belarus

Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Belarus has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Finland Belarus

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Finland ↓ -0.23 (-12.7%)

Belarus ↑ +2.20 (+51.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.