Albania vs Belarus

26 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.6 pp

Albania

Belarus

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.3% DRAW 26.0% AWAY 18.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 58.9% 1.67 DRAW 25.0% 3.92 AWAY 16.1% 6.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Belarus relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 18.7% win probability, compared with 16.1% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Belarus

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Albania Belarus

Shots 11.0 · On target 2.5 Shots 10.0 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Belarus, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Albania Belarus

Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 2.3

Belarus has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Albania Belarus

The combined recent performance profile favours Belarus.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Albania ↑ +0.10 (+6.2%)

Belarus ↓ -1.08 (-15.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.