Armenia vs Montenegro

28 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Armenia

Montenegro

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.4% DRAW 30.2% AWAY 35.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.7% 2.93 DRAW 30.0% 3.20 AWAY 37.3% 2.57

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Armenia

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Armenia Montenegro

Shots 9.0 · On target 3.0 Shots 7.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Armenia Montenegro

Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.3

Armenia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Armenia Montenegro

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Armenia ↑ +0.28 (+10.6%)

Montenegro ↓ -0.06 (-2.3%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.