Slovakia vs Kazakhstan

29 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

Slovakia

Kazakhstan

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 81.3% DRAW 12.9% AWAY 5.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 78.8% 1.23 DRAW 14.5% 6.68 AWAY 6.7% 14.57

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Slovakia relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 81.3% win probability, compared with 78.8% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Slovakia has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Slovakia Kazakhstan

Shots 14.0 · On target 5.3 Shots 8.8 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Slovakia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Slovakia Kazakhstan

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Slovakia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Slovakia Kazakhstan

The combined recent performance profile favours Slovakia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Slovakia ↓ -0.04 (-3.1%)

Kazakhstan ↑ +3.67 (+33.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.