Slovakia vs Moldova

26 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.0 pp

Slovakia

Moldova

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 86.0% DRAW 10.1% AWAY 4.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 84.0% 1.15 DRAW 11.5% 8.42 AWAY 4.6% 21.17

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Slovakia has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Slovakia Moldova

Shots 14.5 · On target 6.5 Shots 5.5 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Slovakia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Slovakia Moldova

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Slovakia Moldova

The combined recent performance profile favours Slovakia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Slovakia ↓ -0.15 (-11.5%)

Moldova ↑ +8.17 (+62.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.